Are Tablet PC convertibles the new laptop bling? CNET, in this article, seems to think so. That portends some good news and some interesting thoughts. I'm wondering if we aren't caught up in the expectations game using the wrong yardstick.
Most prognosticators keep looking at Tablet PC sales as a percentage of laptop sales, and yes using that barometer they are still a low percentage. Won't they always be lower? I can't imagine that, even with what I predict will be a large increase in Tablet PC sales in the future, Tablet sales will ever outstrip regular laptop sales the way we think of these devices today. Now, if and when every laptop is a mobile convertible Tablet PC, that will be another story. Personally, I think that will happen faster than Tablet PCs will outsell regular laptops on a percentage basis.
Tell me what the percentage of hybrid car sales today is to regular car sales? (For those interested they are still less than 1 percent of all new car sales.) Does that make them unsuccessful? I play those number games all the time at work and sometimes they mean a lot. Sometimes they are a meaningless barometer if you don't look behind them. Often, it's just a quick hook for a reporter to write a story.
As I alluded to earlier, I think the market is poised for Tablet PCs to do better, no question. It'll take some better marketing. It'll take getting some Tablet PCs in folks hands. (Glad to see Gateway moving on this.) It'll take the release of Vista and the changes that brings.
In my opinion, stories about the success and failure of sales percentages between now and the release of Vista will basically be meaningless. As an advocate, I'll still trumpet the good news (and yes, bling is good news.) But the hardware technology will change with the software (it always does) and what that really means today we don't know. It's like waiting for a hurricane to hit. It's out there. It's coming. We'll have to wait for landfall to determine the extent of its impact.
Until that time, let's enjoy the bling.
