UMPC/Origami To Replace Tablet PCs? Not A Chance

The good folks over at Ultranauts have stirred up quite a conversation with their Top 10 Predictions that I linked to the other day. Especially prediction #10:

Prediction #10: In one mighty blow, the UMPC will displace the high-end PDA, the PMP and everyone’s favorite underdog, the TabletPC.

Well, a few big dogs are barking back at that one. Both James Kendrick and Craig Pringle have authored lengthy, well reasoned posts as to why that predicition just won't come true. I happen to agree with both gentlemen and I'll add my piddly $.02.

It's all about choice baby. Adding more choices, not taking away. UMPC/Origami will add to the choices already out there in form factor, price point, and dare I say style. It will open up new markets to Inking and I believe increase Tablet PC market share as new UMPC/Origami users will discover the benefits of inking and touch and some will want a bit more ummph. Tablet PC Buzz forums (and others) are filled with the stories of those who discovered ink and can't go back. The same will be true of the touchscreen, and remember with Vista comes touch in Tablet PCs with the right digitizer. I see addition, not subtraction.

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure some will replace this with that. I just see the more folks are exposed to the alternate input methods of inking and touch, the more opportunities arising for Tablet PCs (or whatever we end up calling them.)